MACROECONOMIC RISKS OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES IN UKRAINE'S BANKING SECTOR UNDER MARTIAL LAW AND THE ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGY OF MONETARY POLICY
Abstract
Introduction. The article analyzes the macroeconomic risks of investment activities in the banking sector of Ukraine under martial law and proposes an anti-crisis monetary policy strategy. The impact of economic instability, inflation growth, and exchange rate volatility on investment decisions of banking institutions is examined. Special attention is given to the role of targeted refinancing as a tool to support lending to strategically important sectors of the economy, such as the military-industrial complex, energy, and logistics.
Methods. The study employs general scientific methods of cognition: analysis and synthesis for the assessment of macroeconomic risks; comparison for the analysis of the effectiveness of various monetary policy instruments; content analysis to evaluate the impact of economic changes on banks' investment activity; generalization to formulate recommendations for anti-crisis measures.
Results. It has been found that inflation growth and GDP instability significantly undermine the creditworthiness of borrowers, increasing the risks of non-repayment of investment loans and reducing the financial stability of banks. The use of targeted refinancing to support investment lending in sectors critical to Ukraine's economic and defense resilience is proposed, which could become an effective anti-crisis tool.
Discussion. The prospects for further research in this field involve a more detailed analysis of targeted refinancing mechanisms as a monetary policy tool aimed at supporting strategic sectors of the economy. Special attention should be given to studying the experience of countries that have faced similar macroeconomic challenges to adapt their successful practices for Ukraine's banking system during wartime. Moreover, it is essential to examine the impact of economic factors, such as inflation and currency depreciation, on the long-term investment activities of banks, particularly in sectors critical to the post-war economic recovery. This will help develop recommendations for optimizing monetary policy to stabilize the banking sector and stimulate its investment activity in the post-crisis period.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.35774/ibo2024.01-02.105
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